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Biases and Variability from Costly Bayesian Inference
An unpredictability cost induces underestimation of small probabilities and a fixed bias that remains appreciable even for nearly unbiased observations.
Bias and variance of the Bayesian-mean decoder
We present widely-applicable approximations to the bias and to the variance of the Bayesian mean, obtained under the minimal and biologically-relevant assumption that the encoding results from a series of independent, though not necessarily identically-distributed, signals.
Human Inference in Changing Environments With Temporal Structure
We show that humans adapt their inference process to fine aspects of the temporal structure in the statistics of stimuli.
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