Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Rival Human Crowd Accuracy

no code implementations • 29 Feb 2024 • Philipp Schoenegger, Indre Tuminauskaite, Peter S. Park, Philip E. Tetlock

We compare the aggregated LLM predictions on 31 binary questions to that of a crowd of 925 human forecasters from a three-month forecasting tournament.

AI-Augmented Predictions: LLM Assistants Improve Human Forecasting Accuracy

no code implementations • 12 Feb 2024 • Philipp Schoenegger, Peter S. Park, Ezra Karger, Philip E. Tetlock

Exploratory analyses showed a pronounced effect in one forecasting item, without which we find that the superforecasting assistant increased accuracy by 43%, compared with 28% for the biased assistant.