no code implementations • 23 May 2024 • Joshua Harris, Timothy Laurence, Leo Loman, Fan Grayson, Toby Nonnenmacher, Harry Long, Loes WalsGriffith, Amy Douglas, Holly Fountain, Stelios Georgiou, Jo Hardstaff, Kathryn Hopkins, Y-Ling Chi, Galena Kuyumdzhieva, Lesley Larkin, Samuel Collins, Hamish Mohammed, Thomas Finnie, Luke Hounsome, Steven Riley
For a subset of 12 tasks, we also evaluate GPT-4 and find comparable results to Llama-3-70B-Instruct, which scores equally or outperforms GPT-4 on 6 of the 12 tasks.
no code implementations • 7 Jul 2023 • Oliver Eales, Steven Riley
Here we define the apparent time-varying reproduction number, $R_A(t)$, the reproduction number calculated from a downstream epidemic time series and demonstrate how differences between $R_A(t)$ and $R(t)$ depend on the convolution function.
1 code implementation • 23 Apr 2020 • Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy, H Juliette T Unwin, Helen Coupland, Thomas A. Mellan, Harrison Zhu, Tresnia Berah, Jeffrey W Eaton, Pablo N P Guzman, Nora Schmit, Lucia Callizo, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, Charles Whittaker, Peter Winskill, Xiaoyue Xi, Azra Ghani, Christl A. Donnelly, Steven Riley, Lucy C Okell, Michaela A. C. Vollmer, Neil M. Ferguson, Samir Bhatt
Our model estimates these changes by calculating backwards from temporal data on observed to estimate the number of infections and rate of transmission that occurred several weeks prior, allowing for a probabilistic time lag between infection and death.
Applications Methodology